A persuasion experiment, walked through in motion: one conversation with an AI, tailored to what each person already values — and an honest look at how long the change lasts.
2,877 U.S. adults, recruited in November 2024, are randomly assigned: 1,430 have a one-on-one conversation about transgender rights with an AI interlocutor built on GPT-4o; 1,447 don't. Randomization means any later difference between the groups is the conversation's doing.
The AI doesn't deliver a script. Each respondent first completes a moral foundations questionnaire, and over a brief dialogue of six exchanges the model makes its case for transgender rights in the values that person already holds — an appeal to fairness for one person; to care, loyalty, or sanctity for another. The matching matters: a perfect top-two moral match corresponds to roughly +4.8 additional thermometer points.
Right after the conversation, support for transgender rights is significantly higher on every measure: the feeling thermometer rises +3.94 to +5.19 points (p < 0.001), behavioral intentions by 0.23–0.28 SD, attitudes by 0.09–0.13 SD, and a latent support index by 0.22–0.29 SD — ranges across model specifications. One week later the gains attenuate substantially, and after weighting and multiple-comparison corrections they can no longer be reliably distinguished from zero.
AI can deliver value-aligned persuasion at a scale and level of personalization no canvasser could match — and it works, at least in the moment, with effects of 0.09–0.29 SD across measures. The attenuation a week later is the equally important half of the finding: without reinforcement, the gains are transient. Both halves are in the paper.
Crabtree, Charles, John B. Holbein, Mitchell Bosley, and Semra Sevi. “Can AI Help Reduce Prejudice? Evaluating the Effectiveness of AI-Powered Personalized Persuasion on Support for Transgender Rights.” PNAS Nexus, forthcoming.
read the paper on ssrn →estimates from the accepted manuscript — ranges across model specifications · *** p < 0.001 · ** p < 0.01 · wave 1 N = 2,681 · wave 2 N = 1,155 · standard errors, weights, and robustness checks in the paper