charlescrabtree.org/a paper, animated

Which Comes First — Morals or Politics?

A popular theory says our deepest moral instincts shape our politics. But what if we have it backwards, and our politics quietly shape what we call moral?

hatemi · crabtree · smith — american journal of political science 63(4): 788–806, 2019

01 · the orthodoxy

Moral Foundations Theory's claim

Moral Foundations Theory (MFT) is widely used as a causal explanation of ideology: it holds that political attitudes are downstream products of moral intuitions — gut reactions about care, fairness, loyalty, authority, and purity that supposedly come first and sort us into camps.

Moral intuitionsthe assumed cause
Ideologythe assumed effect
02 · the untested assumption

Nobody had actually tested the arrow

There is an equally plausible story running the other way: that moral judgments are driven by political beliefs. The catch is that almost all prior work simply assumed the causal direction rather than testing it. So the question stayed open — do moral intuitions drive politics, or does politics drive moral intuitions?

study 1 & 2
Two panel studies — the same people measured over time
study 3
One nationally representative study
the goal
Pin down which way the causal arrow really points
03 · the finding

The arrow points the other way

Across all three studies, the evidence was consistent: ideology predicts moral intuitions, not the reverse. Where you stand politically shapes which moral foundations you endorse — flipping the direction MFT had assumed.

Ideologythe cause
Moral intuitionsthe effect

political beliefs come first — morality follows

04 · what it means

We recruit morality to justify our politics

If ideology shapes moral intuitions, then MFT works better as a description of how we rationalize our politics than as an account of where politics comes from. People don't just hold political views — they reach for moral language to make those views feel like timeless rights and wrongs.

Hatemi, Peter K., Charles Crabtree, and Kevin B. Smith. “Ideology Justifies Morality: Political Beliefs Predict Moral Foundations.” American Journal of Political Science 63(4): 788–806, 2019.

read the paper →

evidence from two panel studies and one nationally representative study · the diagrams summarize the documented causal direction; model estimates live in the paper